FOMCの結果を待つ

注目の1-3月期ニュージーランド雇用統計は
失業率こそ、予想4.3%より良好な4.2%となったが、
就業者数増減が前期比予想+0.5%のところ、
なんとマイナス0.2%となり、
NZドルは0.6675前後から0.6629ドル前後へ急落した。
その後は、全体的にドルが重い状況に
少しNZドルは戻してはいるが、
この数字で5月8日のRBNZ政策決定会合で
利下げがかなり濃厚になった模様だ。
本日、欧州はメーデーで休場。
注目の4月英国製造業PMIは予想どおり53.1となったが、
50を下回る欧州と比べ、英国の好調さが浮き彫りになっている。
英国への投資が止まるので、
英国経済は厳しくなるとの観測が強かったが、
欧州の方が英国より明らかに不振だ。
そうであるならば、EURGBPは下落するのが自然だろうか。
昨日、トランプ大統領はFRBに対し
「1ポイントの利下げ、そして債券購入再開を望む」と発言したが、
1ポイント(おそらく100ベーシスポイント)の利下げはかなりのハードル。
本日のFOMCでは、トランプ大統領の圧力に対し、
どのようにパウエル議長が応えるかがポイントか。

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