2018/04/10 マーケットの動きとトレード所感

昨日のマーケットは東京タイムに習主席の発言をきっかけに
株高・円安が進み、一日を通してリスク選好的な動きが優勢な
一日となりましたね。

習主席は米中貿易問題に関して、対話が解決の方向と
穏便な姿勢を表明し、さらに自動車関税の引き下げなど
市場開放姿勢を示しております。

これによって米中貿易摩擦の悪化懸念が後退し、
円安・USD高などリスク選好の動きが進みました。

ロンドンタイムにはいったん調整の動きも入りましたが
NYタイムには再度円安が進行。
EURやGBPも買われるなど、
円の独歩安状態といったマーケットとなりました。

一方で米露の政治対立が深刻化との報道もあり
こちらは今後の展開に要警戒です。

<本日の注目イベント>

16:00(欧)ECB 月次政策理事会

17:30(英)鉱工業生産 (前月比)
17:30(英)製造業生産高 (前月比)
17:30(英)製造業生産高 (前年比)

20:00(欧)欧州中央銀行(ECB)マリオ・ドラギ総裁スピーチ

21:30(米)消費者物価指数 – コア(季調済)
21:30(米)消費者物価指数 (前月比)
21:30(米)消費者物価指数 (前年比)
21:30(米)消費者物価指数 (食品・エネルギー除く) (前年比)
21:30(米)消費者物価指数 (食品・エネルギー除く) (前月比)

03:00(米)月次財政収支
03:00(米)FOMC議事録

<本日の売買戦略で感じた事など>

① 本日のマーケットの状況と感想、見通しなど

本日はFOMC議事録公表、ドラギさんのスピーチなどが
予定されていますが、サプライズがなければ
基本は無風通過でしょう。

消費者物価指数は強い結果が出れば
ややUSD高が強まる可能性があります。
結果次第では貿易摩擦問題の懸念が後退していることなども
サポートとなり、USD高が強まるかもしれません。

マーケット全体としてもリスク警戒感が後退しており
USDやGBPなどファンダメンタルズの良い通貨から
買いが強まってきています。

EURも今年は出口戦略期待が背景にあるため、
このままリスクオンが強まれば円安トレンド再開への
期待も持てそうです。

② USDJPY(ドル円)

USD円は徐々に107円台しっかりという印象になってきました。
本日は押し目買い方針で臨みます。

107円ちょうどから割れあたりを狙って買っていきます。

③ EURUSD(ユーロドル)

EURも昨日は買いが強い展開。
日足ではまだレンジですが、政治的背景を考慮すると
買い優勢を予想。

EURUSDはそれなりに売り圧力も入ってくると思われますが
本日は買い方針で臨みます。
1.234から。

④ GBPUSD(ポンドドル)

GBPも買いが優勢。
GBPUSDよりGBP円の買いが面白そう。

GBPUSDに関しては、序盤は押し目買いから
NYタイム以降はドテンも検討。

1.417割れから買い回転、
1.42オーバーからは売り目線で。

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