2018/03/22 マーケットの動きとトレード所感

昨日のマーケットは東京タイムは様子見姿勢が強く

クロス円は概ねレンジだったものの、

USD円に関しては米中貿易摩擦を懸念して

じり安の展開となってしまいました。

ロンドンタイムに入ると米中貿易摩擦懸念から

国債が買われ利回りが下落し、さらには株安になっています。

リスクオフの連鎖を受けてクロス円が下げトレンドとなりました。

NYタイムに入るとトランプ大統領が

中国に対する知財侵害関税賦課に署名と伝わり

リスクオフが決定的なものになってしまいました。

欧州通貨にも売りが入ったため、USDストレートでは

上下動して方向感が出ないペアもあったようですが、

USD円がついに105円半ばをしっかりと割り込み104円台に突入。

マーケットは中国の出方を待つ形となり、

基本的にはリスク警戒感が続くことになりました。

私的には、為替の相場感が変わるのでは!と気配を感じています!!

  <本日の注目イベント>

21:30(米)耐久財受注

21:30(米)耐久財受注 (除輸送用機器)

21:30(加)小売売上高 (除自動車) (前月比)

21:30(加)小売売上高 (前月比)

21:30(加)消費者物価指数 (コア) (前年比)

21:30(加)消費者物価指数 (コア) (前月比)

21:30(加)消費者物価指数-コア(前月比)

21:30(加)消費者物価指数 (前年比)

21:30(加)消費者物価指数 (前月比)

23:00(米)新築住宅販売件数(前月比)

02:00(米)ベーカー・ヒューズ米掘削リグ稼働数

  <本日の売買戦略で感じた事など>

① 本日のマーケットの状況と感想、見通しなど

本日は米国・カナダに指標発表が予定されていますが、

今のマーケットは指標でどうこうなるものではなさそうな気配です。

なぜなら、米中貿易摩擦の行方に注目が集まっており、

当然と言えば当然ですが、注目の反発は必至とみられて折り、超重大テーマとなっています。

問題は中国がどのような対応を見せるかです。

口先だけならまだしも逆制裁的な決定を下した場合、

まさに貿易戦争勃発と言える状況となり、

マーケットは総悲観モードになるものと想定されます。

このことは十分に想定されます。

株安、USD安、国債利回り下落、そしてリスクオフの円買いは

確実と必至とも言えそうです。

そういった動きを予測した場合、

今日は円買い方向に向かうしかなさそうですが、個人的には先行き見えず不安です・・・。

②USDJPY(ドル円)

 

105円を割ってしまったUSD円です。

今の相場環境では一段安にも警戒が必要が

一体、どこまで下げるか不気味ですね。

本来であれば、105円手前から売り方針かもしれませんが、

私的には、ロングの逆ばりも頭をよぎっています。

③EURUSD(ユーロドル)

EURUSDはお互いが売り対状況となっており、

結果レンジをイメージが妥当と思われます。

1.230-5でレンジ逆張りでしょうか?

ただ、時間帯によってはUSD売り優勢も予想されそうです。

④GBPUSD(GBPUSD)

GBPUSDも同じくレンジをイメージします。

しかし日足を見ると上昇トレンドに入りかけているようにも見え

トランプ大統領の署名が、逆にUSD売りGBP買いを誘発するのでしょうか?、

しっかり見極めつつ、1.410あたりから押し目買いで臨んで見てはと思っています。

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