2018/03/08 マーケットの動きとトレード所感

昨日のマーケットはECBに注目が集まりました。

アジアからロンドン早朝にかけての時間帯は方向感が出ませんでしたね。

ECB発表では追加緩和に関する文言が削除されたことで

一気にEUR買いとなってしまいました。

しかしその後行われたドラギさんの会見では

緩和縮小に慎重な姿勢を崩さず、

更には19年のインフレ見通しを下方修正したことで

一気のEUR売りとなってしまいました。

ECBにも通貨高は困るが緩和は縮小していかねばならない、

というジレンマが感じられる内容とも言えます。

  <本日の注目イベント>

15:30(日)日銀記者会見

16:00(欧)独 輸出高(前月比)

16:00(欧)独 貿易収支

16:00(欧)独 経常収支(季調前)

16:00(欧)独 輸入高(前月比)

18:30(英)鉱工業生産 (前月比)

18:30(英)製造業生産高 (前月比)

18:30(英)鉱工業生産 (前年比)

18:30(英)製造業生産高 (前年比)

22:00(英)国立経済社会研究所(NIESR) GDP 予測

22:30(米)非農業部門雇用者数

22:30(米)週平均労働時間

22:30(米)平均時給 (前年比)

22:30(米)失業率

22:30(米)労働参加率

22:30(米)平均時給 (前月比)

22:30(加)雇用推移(ネット)

22:30(加)失業率

22:30(加)労働参加率

02:40(米)ボストン連銀ローゼングレン総裁講演

03:00(米)ベーカー・ヒューズ米掘削リグ稼働数

  <本日の売買戦略で感じた事など>

① 本日のマーケットの状況と感想、見通しなど

本日は雇用統計に注目。

当然数字によってシンプルに、良ければUSD買い、

悪ければUSD売り!。

中期的に見てみるとやはりUSD売りのしつこさは気にはなるのですが、

もうしばらくは様子見でしょうね。

トランプ大統領の危うさを差し置いてUSD高が進行する為には

相当強い数字で利上げペースアップを確信させるような

強い内容が必要課と思われます。

指標発表後、瞬間的にはその方向についていくのは当然として、

落ち着いたところではUSD売りポジションも検討すべきと思われます。

逆に悪い数字が出たときには・・・・?ですね。

②USDJPY(ドル円)

USD円は東京タイムに入ってやや上昇を見せています。

株の上昇に足並みをそろえる格好です。

ただ、イベント前のポジション調整のとも受け取れます。

イベント後は流れについていければと思っています。

③EURUSD(ユーロドル)

EURはECB関連で上下動。

今日は雇用統計に素直についていくのではないでしょうか。

イベント前は1.230-5でレンジ逆張り。

イベント後は流れに素直に乗ることが平和かもですね。

④GBPUSD(GBPUSD)

GBPも昨日はEURに足並みをそろえて下落。

こちらはやや下押し圧力あるのかも・・・・?

イベント前はレンジ1.380-5のレンジ逆張り。

イベント後は戻り売り方針が良さそうですね。

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