2018//03/05 マーケットの動きとトレード所感

昨日のマーケットは欧米タイムに入って動意づく展開となりました。

また東京タイムも株安を警戒して動きにくい展開となりました。

ロンドンタイムに入るとイタリア総選挙を警戒して

対欧州通貨で一時円高が進行しています。

しかしロンドン午後、NY序盤に入ると流れが反転。

クロス円が全面安となりました。

トランプさんの関税発言がトーンダウンしたことも一因のようですが、

USDはEUR、GBPでは売られており、欧州通貨メインの円売りがUSD円にも

波及しているようにもうかがえます。

  <本日の注目イベント>

12:30(豪)RBA 金融政策報告書

12:30(豪)RBA政策金利発表

17:15(欧)スイス 消費者物価指数(前月比)

17:15(欧)スイス 消費者物価指数 (前年比)

21:30(米)ニューヨーク連銀ダドリー総裁講演

00:00(米)製造業受注指数

00:00(加)Ivey購買部協会指数

00:00(加)Ivey購買部協会指数

03:15(英)MPC委員 ホールデン氏の会見

  <本日の売買戦略で感じた事など>

① 本日のマーケットの状況と感想、見通しなど

本日は豪で金利発表などが予定されていますが、

基本的には昨日書いたように木・金がメインイベントでもあり

大きな動きにはなりにくいと考えられます。

昨日の円安もそう考えると円高トレンドの調整をするためには

いいきっかけだったとも言えますが、何とも言えないかもしれません。。

安易に円高トレンド終了と考えるのではなく

イベント前のポジション調整と考えるのが正しいのかもしれませんね。

だとすれば、調整にはもう少し上値余地があるようにも思えますが、

今日は円売りチャンスの最終日となるのかもしれません。悩ましいです!

②USDJPY(ドル円)

USD円は105円半ばから106円台を回復しました。

クロス円も軒並み上昇で大丈夫そうです。

しかし日足を見ると未だ円高トレンドで

レジスタンスラインにも達していないのが気懸りです。

今日は押し目買いで、レジスタンスラインまでの調整を期待し、

106.343で買いました。

③EURUSD(ユーロドル)

EURUSDはEURがやや優勢。

EUR円でもEURは大きな上昇を見せました。

やはり今年の主役名のではないでしょうか?

しかしEURUSD日足はがっちり中立水準を保っているようです。

今日はレンジイメージで、1.232-1.237の逆張り方針がよさそうです。

④GBPUSD(ポンドドル)

GBPUSDはEURUSDに比べて比較的大きめの上昇。

ポンド円は殺人通貨の本領発揮で上下で2円近い上昇。

GBPUSD日足はもう少し上値余地がありそうに見えます。

1.38456で買得ればと思っています。

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