貿易戦争激化懸念も、落ち着いているマーケット

中国が対米貿易交渉拒否ということで、
今朝方豪ドル円が大きく崩れたが、
欧州市場に入り戻している。
貿易を理由に売られたところは、
買い戻さないと戻ってくる。
貿易問題が本格的に市場に影響を及ぼすには、
関税引き上げが実体経済の下げにつながらないと難しいようだ。
もう一つの材料、BREXITに関しては、
ハードブレクジットやむなしとの方向に向かっているようだ。
IMM通貨先物ポジションの動向を見ても、
このところの上昇にも関わらず、
ポンドショートは増えている。
目先は上がったり下がったりかもしれないが、
もしハードブレクジットとなれば対ドル1.20ぐらいまで下がる可能性がある。
今年のマーケットはほとんど動かないが、
投機筋としてはブレクジットが一つの楽しみになっている。

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